After nearly 10 years of civil unrest, Liberia is trying to reconstruct itself. As in many other African countries, the fixed telecommunications network is poorly developed and in places non-existent. Investcom launched the first mobile network in 2001 through its subsidiary Lonestar Communications Corporation, after buying the licence from Omega Communications, a local company. However, the uncertain political situation in the country had until recently prevented operations from being extended beyond the Monrovia area (the capital city) and Buchanan.

A confused regulatory environment

There is no independent regulatory body in Liberia. Licences to operate mobile networks can be obtained through the Ministry of Post and Telecommunications. It is currently conducting a so-called 'cleansing' process since a few local companies now claim to be in possession of GSM licences that the current administration believes are either fake or were dubiously obtained under the former regime. These licences are often used to attract foreign investors and lead them into forming joint ventures. According to the Ministry, only four operators are authorised to provide mobile services:

• Lonestar (Investcom Group), the only network in operation, which is completing an expansion with Ericsson equipment
• Atlantic Wireless, which was licensed in 1999 but was unable to roll out a network. It now plans to launch in May 2004.
• Celtel International in partnership with Durcour, a local company that was issued with a licence in 2000 but never deployed a network. The joint venture will trade as Celtel Liberia Inc. No launch date has yet been announced.
• Comium, a company that is owned by Lebanon-based LibanCell and was granted a licence in March 2004. The operator plans to launch commercial services in June 2004.

Under the most simple analysis it would appear that the first operator to roll out its network will be the most likely to last. However, it is also important to take into consideration what supports each operator technically and financially. All three of the new operators have announced that they will roll out networks before the end of 2004. Atlantic Wireless plans to launch its LiberCell network in May 2004. It is the leading internet service provider (ISP) in Liberia. The company's network will initially cover only the Monrovia area, however, and it is difficult to see how it will compete against bigger groups like Investcom and Celtel if it does not expand rapidly to the rest of country. Indeed, while Celtel is planning a wider deployment, Investcom's Lonestar is presently expanding its existing network throughout the country. According to EMC data, Lonestar subscriber numbers had reached 53,000 by the end of March 2004. On the infrastructure side, Ericsson is consolidating its stronghold in West Africa. It is Lonestar's sole supplier, Atlantic Wireless's new supplier and Celtel's potential supplier. Comium will be the exception - it has chosen to use Huawei infrastructure.

By January 2005, EMC sees Lonestar retaining its leading position nationwide, followed by Celtel, while Comium and Atlantic Wireless subscribers will be concentrated in Monrovia and maybe one or two other cities. However, the prospect of late launches and limited coverage may discourage the new operators and therefore lead them to modify their expansion plans in Liberia. This is likely to be the case for Comium, as well as for Celtel. LibanCell-owned Comium intends to penetrate the African market more widely and has set its sights on Sierra Leone while Celtel, which already operates in 11 African countries, still has an unexploited GSM licence in the republic of Guinea.