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Messaging Growth Follows Subscriber Slowdown
Source:www.emc-database.com , Source date:
In April 2002, the global wireless subscription base passed the 1 billion mark, up from 790 million a year before. Of these almost 70% were GSM subscribers. Matching this growth in subscribers, according to the GSM Association, over 75 billion text messages were sent globally in Q1 2002, compared to 50 billion in Q1 2001. The Association also estimates that a total of 250 billion messages were sent in 2001, while EMC usage statistics for December 2001 reveal an average of 40 SMS being sent by each GSM subscriber during the month, up from 32 SMS per GSM subscriber in December 2000. Traffic volumes, however, are not constant over the year and exhibit some seasonality with peak periods coinciding with commercially celebrated holiday periods of Christmas, New Year, St Valentine's Day and Mother's Day. These peaks obviously have regional variations, for example the Chinese New Year celebrations generate significant traffic volumes in Asian markets in February.
Considering that not all subscribers utilize messaging, analysing usage statistics from an active user's perspective reveals average usage of 100 SMS per GSM subscriber in December 2001. Using Telecel Vodafone of Portugal as a template for active usage levels, EMC estimates that Western European operators only have 35-40% SMS penetration of subscriber bases, thus posing an additional challenge to the operator to boost its own SMS penetration rate. This figure is closer to 12-18% in Latin America and above 60% in the Nordics and the UK.
Again mirroring subscriber figures, growth in messaging traffic appears to be slowing especially in the more developed markets of Europe and Asia. Year on year growth for December 2001 was 67% compared to 400% seen in December 2000. The introduction of messaging into markets such as Latin America and Africa should, however, maintain this growth in the short term.
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