In April 2002, the global wireless subscription base passed the 1 billion mark,
up from 790 million a year before. Of these almost 70% were GSM subscribers. Matching
this growth in subscribers, according to the GSM Association, over 75 billion
text messages were sent globally in Q1 2002, compared to 50 billion in Q1 2001.
The Association also estimates that a total of 250 billion messages were sent
in 2001, while EMC usage statistics for December 2001 reveal an average of 40
SMS being sent by each GSM subscriber during the month, up from 32 SMS per GSM
subscriber in December 2000. Traffic volumes, however, are not constant over the
year and exhibit some seasonality with peak periods coinciding with commercially
celebrated holiday periods of Christmas, New Year, St Valentine's Day and Mother's
Day. These peaks obviously have regional variations, for example the Chinese New
Year celebrations generate significant traffic volumes in Asian markets in February.
Considering that not all subscribers utilize messaging, analysing usage statistics
from an active user's perspective reveals average usage of 100 SMS per GSM subscriber
in December 2001. Using Telecel Vodafone of Portugal as a template for active
usage levels, EMC estimates that Western European operators only have 35-40%
SMS penetration of subscriber bases, thus posing an additional challenge to
the operator to boost its own SMS penetration rate. This figure is closer to
12-18% in Latin America and above 60% in the Nordics and the UK.
Again mirroring subscriber figures, growth in messaging traffic appears to
be slowing especially in the more developed markets of Europe and Asia. Year
on year growth for December 2001 was 67% compared to 400% seen in December 2000.
The introduction of messaging into markets such as Latin America and Africa
should, however, maintain this growth in the short term.
BUY THE MOST THOROUGHLY RESEARCHED MESSAGING DATA FROM EM
- Spreadsheet of SMS data in Excel format
- 40 operators
- Data to be presented will be by operator by quarter in millions of messages
for eight quarters from Q1 2000-Q4 2001
- Comments displayed with sourcing and reference notes
- Focused on Western Europe, but also to include China, Philippines, and other
South East Asian operators.
- Available 1 June 2002
- Price
EMC AND MORGAN STANLEY WILL BE CONDUCTING A SECOND OPERATOR SURVEY IN THE
NEXT FEW WEEKS.
TO TAKE PART AND RECEIVE FREE COPIES OF THE SURVEY - EMAIL mscanlon@emc-database.com
